Banks in India are expected to cut lending rates by up to 50 basis points by September as there is sufficient liquidity in the system.
An interest rate cut, at a time when demand was not showing any sign of revival, would boost sentiments, especially for interest-rate sensitives like the car and real estate sectors, which had been showing negative growth, a majority of the 15 CEOs polled by Business Standard said.
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
By no means do economists see the Reserve Bank of India stop at just a 25-bp cut. Some of the economists such as Soumyakanti Ghosh of State Bank of India are of the firm view that rates have room to fall by a total of 75 bps in the current financial year, starting with 25 bps in the August 7 policy.
Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory this week, but may see late profit-booking amid the release of a series of crucial global economic indicators, analysts said. On the economic front, traders will closely monitor the manufacturing/ services PMI data from across regions and the US non-farm payrolls/ employment data along with consumer confidence for the month of September and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, they added.
WPI at 3-month high; surge in all broad categories; CPI at 2-month high.
The RBI left the policy rates unchanged in Tuesday''s sixth bi-monthly monetary policy review.
Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports, HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services and Bajaj Finserv were also among the gainers. However, Trent, Eternal, UltraTech Cement and NTPC were among the laggards.
Benchmark indices failed to sustain gains and retreated from day's high dragged primarily by the losses in metals, information technology and bank shares as investors started to book profits in late noon deals. Earlier, markets had scaled fresh all-time highs on the surprise post-budget rate cut by Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The 30-share Sensex ended down 213 points at 29,380 and the 50-share Nifty closed down 74 points at 8,922. Intra-day, Sensex reached the all-time high mark of 30,024.74 while Nifty touched the life-time high level of 9,119.20. In the broader market, both the BSE Midcap index and Smallcap indices, down 1% and 1.2% each underperformed the front-liners. Market breadth in BSE ended negative with 1,882 declines against 1,010 advances. A day after signing an agreement with Finance Ministry on inflation targeting, RBI surprised the markets with an early post-budget repo rate cut of 25 bps (basis points) to 7.5% from 7.75% which was again outside of central bank's scheduled policy review meetings as the earlier rate cut effected on January 15. "RBI's latest rate cut of 25 basis points, while a surprise in its timing is in-line with our expectations of a sharp rate-cutting cycle over the coming quarters. With inflation sustainably lower by 500bps, the RBI has in recent months acknowledged the scope for rate cuts and was only waiting for additional comfort that the government's fiscal policy would not play spoil-sport," said Dinesh Thakkar, chairman and managing director at Angel Broking in a note. Analysts at Karvy believe that further monetary policy action will depend on number of factors including easing of supply constraints, improved availability of power, land, minerals and infrastructure, fiscal consolidation, the pass through of rate cuts by banks and the expected monsoon. Citing weakness in some sectors of the economy and the overall global trend towards monetary easing as rationale for the rate cut the central bank also exuded confidence in the road map for fiscal consolidation as laid out in the Union Budget, 2015. Commenting on how the markets reacted to RBI's surprise move, K Subramanyam assistant vice-president (institutional research), Asit C. Mehta Securities said, "The unexpected cut did take the market by surprise .However, credit off-take is not dependant only on interest rates. A gradual revival in the economy would be of more help which would trigger credit off-take. Hopefully this will follow and RBI's action would prove helpful. From market point of view this is bullish as equity becomes more attractive vis-a-vis falling interest rates." On the macro-economic front, the HSBC services PMI rose to an eight-month high of 53.9 in February up from 52.4 in January indicating strong expansion in output across the sector. Respondents cited robust growth of new business as the principle factor for the increase in activity. Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 773 crore on Tuesday, as per provisional data. Buzzing Stocks 9 out of the 12 sectoral indices of BSE ended in red. BSE Metal index, down 2.4% was the top loser followed by BSE Oil & Gas and Power indices, down 1.3% each. BSE Healthcare index, up 1.2% and BSE FMCG index, up 0.9% were the top losers. Bank stocks came under during late noon trades as traders booked profits at higher levels. However, RBI rate cut may encourage large lenders to cut their lending rates boosting demand for home and auto loans and provide funds for various stalled and new projects. Many stalled projects across the country are waiting for cash to restart work. The stock of stalled projects at the end of December 2014 stood at Rs 8.8 lakh crore or 7% of GDP. ICICI Bank ended down 0.1%, Axis Bank and SBI declined over 3% and HDFC Bank shed 1.5%. Sun Pharma gained over 6% on approval granted to Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company (SPARC) by US FDA for an antiepileptic drug. The product will be manufactured by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries at its Halol (Gujarat) facility in India. SPARC was formed in 2007 when Sun Pharma separated out its active projects in drug discovery and innovation into a new company. Dr Reddys Lab and Cipla have gained over 1% each. ITC gained over 1% after consecutive sessions of losses on the proposed larger-than-expected hike in excise duty on cigarettes in the Union Budget. The biggest ever auction of spectrum by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) started on Wednesday in the morning where government expects to garner Rs 80,000-1lakh crore from the sale of spectrum. Idea Cellular gained over 2%, Reliance Communication gained around 1% and Bharti Airtel closed 0.5% higher. Metal stocks were under pressure in today's session. Hindalco declined over 3%, Sesa Sterliteended down over 4% and Tata Steel closed down 2%. Profit-taking in IT stocks led to Wipro losing around 1.8%, Infosys declining 0.7% and TCS losing 1.5%.
Equity investors would track global market trends, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues this week, analysts said. Moreover, progress of monsoon and developments related to trade talks would also be monitored by investors, experts noted.
The rise in bond yields would make it difficult for banks to pass on rate cuts as except for retail loans, most of their legacy portfolio are linked to marginal cost based lending rate, which takes into consideration bond yields.
The finance ministry welcomed an inter-meeting rate cut by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, saying it reflected easing inflation concerns and vindicated the government's efforts to achieve economic growth without stoking inflation.
The Reserve Bank had kept policy rate unchanged in its review on April 7.
Leading automakers Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Mahindra, and Tata Motors saw a dip in dispatches to dealers in August amid dip in demand with many prospective buyers postponing their buys anticipating a reduction in vehicle prices on account of the new GST framework. The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India reported an 8 per cent year-on-year dip in dispatches of passenger vehicles in the domestic market last month.
The Reserve Bank of India held its policy rate at 7.25 percent on Tuesday.
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The central bank may need to further ease the rates by 50-75 bps.
Says current interest rates are a disincentive for growth, especially in the construction sector
For LG Electronics India, the Rs 11,607 crore initial public offering (IPO) is not just a fundraising exercise. The company's senior executives describe it as a step towards becoming "future-ready", showcasing financial strength while preparing for the next phase of growth in a market they see as still underpenetrated.
Official GDP data for the second quarter of the current fiscal year ending March are due to for release this Friday.
RBI rate cut is a welcome step for all citizens of India as everyone is looking for near-term boost in economy.
The analysts believe that the rate cut would put downward pressure on the US dollar, thus boosting the gold prices in the non-dollar currency markets.
It believes that RBI will continue with liquidity infusion through CRR cuts and open market operations. Rate cut may happen only in January
'The effect will be seen two-three quarters down the line.'
In today's circumstances, however, getting people to borrow more is the last thing on the minds of financial service providers. Most of them are reeling under the weight of assets whose prices have declined precipitously because nobody in his right mind wants to buy them.
The key rate cut by RBI is too little to have any major positive impact on demand for automobiles but it is still a move in the right direction, according to the industry players.
'...aggressive pricing amid volatility, but these are exceptions.'
Dhurandhar may not have the dark realism of a spy story which a web show can manage. But it does not have the flamboyance either, that has come to be associated with espionage movies, observes Deepa Gahlot.
Market breadth ended weak with 1,688 losers and 1,205 gainers on the BSE.
'Some buyers get carried away by festival offers and purchase higher variants or larger vehicles than they truly need, which impacts running cost and long-term affordability.'
SBI, the country's largest lender, first announced a rate cut of 0.25 per cent in its home loan rates on Thursday, forcing HDFC, the second biggest home loan financier, to respond.
Persisting uncertainties related to the US trade policies pose downside risk to the overall demand in the Indian economy while the inflation outlook for the near term has become more benign than anticipated earlier, RBI said in its latest bulletin on Thursday. In the August bulletin, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also said that India's sovereign rating upgrade by S&P bodes well for capital inflows and sovereign yields, going forward.
The latest rate cut has not yet trickled down to consumers.
The repo rate, at which RBI lends to the banking system, will be at 7.5%
'Sleep is when your blood pressure falls; this nocturnal dip is when the heart gets rest.'
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
They feel reducing policy rates will help to boost production and revive the economy.
Scanty rain would have put extra pressure on food prices.
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